Is the Honeymoon With Generative AI Over or Just Beginning?

 The advent of Generative AI was presumably the most paradigm-redefining event for not just the technology industry but humanity itself. From industries across the board to governments seeking to leverage its abilities, Generative AI promised to make unheard-of productivity and efficiency levels possible.

The fact that it was able to analyze humongous quantities of data in real-time and ferret out actionable insights, made it the go-to technology for everyone ranging from healthcare, marketing and retail to education, finance, and transportation as well as everything else, besides.

This was amply demonstrated in the humongous amount of investment racked up by it in the recent past. Last year saw the technology supported by a whopping $21.3 billion of which Open AI got the lion's share of $10 billion. The first quarter of 2024 saw an investment of US 3 billion, which may reach 12 billion by the end of the year.[1]

Waning Interest?

The fact that there is considerably less investment in 2024 in Generative AI than in 2023 could point to a waning interest in Generative AI or be a breather for the already substantial investment to bear fruit, before resuming in a giddy rush of exuberance that characterized the initial phase. The thing to understand about Generative AI is the fact that it seems to be focused on prompting efficiency and productivity, apart from reducing costs, and it does not really seem to have a clear trajectory with regard to innovation and growth.

Not much seems to have been accomplished by way of zeroing in on those who would help take Generative AI to the next level, or on how it will be governed and the risks that it may pose.[2]

The biggest drawback of Generative AI is the fact that it’s outpouring of content that has driven out genuine high-quality human-driven content may lead to a scenario in which all future AI models may only have its self-generated content to help model their output. What's the point of it all, if all that Generative AI does is make a fool of you with perennially regurgitated nonsense?[3]

All the hoopla around Generative AI is premised on the assumption that its growth is inexorable, exponential, and inevitable. There isn't much sane deliberation around the fact if it is actually the case or like other technologies before it, it has a high point, a plateauing moment, and then a downslide. Leaders in positions of authority need to make considered decisions about the adoption of Generative AI and adopt it only if it promises to bring some value to their businesses.

Conclusion

The sheen seems to be wearing off Generative AI what with governments seeking to regulate the technology, creators bringing about lawsuits for infringement of copyrights, and everybody expressing concerns about privacy.[4]

There are, however, those who believe that it will see massive adoption in the years ahead with Gartner estimating that 75% of businesses will deploy Generative AI to create synthetic customer data, something that a mere 5% of them do so at present. This is something that allows businesses to simulate environments that help them zero in on new product development opportunities.[5]

So, the jury is out on Generative AI. Let's see where the billions invested in it take it.

[1] https://www.ey.com/en_ie/news/2024/05/generative-ai-venture-capital-investment-globally-on-track-to-reach-12-billion-dollar-in-2024-following-breakout-year-in-2023#:~:text=2024%20Dublin%2C%20IE-,Generative%20AI%20Venture%20Capital%20Investment%20Globally%20On%20Track%20To%20Reach,following%20breakout%20year%20in%202023

[2] https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consulting/us-state-of-gen-ai-report.pdf

[3] https://hbr.org/2023/11/has-generative-ai-peaked

[4] https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/8/19/23837705/openai-chatgpt-microsoft-bing-google-generating-less-interest

[5] https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/3-bold-and-actionable-predictions-for-the-future-of-genai#:~:text=Generative%20AI%20technologies%20will%20greatly,technology%20companies%20and%20research%20labs.

Spiritual underpinnings of an Indian

Photo by Vipin Labroo

That India is the land of spirituality is an age-old and well-worn cliche. There is a global multi-billion dollar industry that sells our country as the land of millions of gods, myriad festivals, yoga, Nirvana and all that.

But what are the real spiritual underpinnings of the average Indian? What is his worldview and his view of his place in it? Is he or she really the deeply spiritually inclined person who is oblivious to the trappings of the material world or are they totally enamoured of the pleasures of the world as demonstrated by our recent exuberant celebration of India overtaking Britain to become the fifth largest economy in the world.

Perhaps, there is a bit of both- a deep reverence for all manner of life on Earth and indeed nature itself in all its glorious manifestations as well an unabashed appreciation and celebration of everything material. The former is evident from the kindness shown to animals across the land by ordinary people leaving food and water for stray animals, and the fact that millions upon millions of Indians are vegetarian simply because of their belief in the sanctity of life- which is not visible in any other part of the world.

On the other hand, the avarice and hankering after the good life are evident in the manner people put their own good above that of society, as evidenced by the rampant corruption, almost non-existent social decorum and civic sense in so many and the senselessly grandiose weddings that sometimes even bankrupt families.

So, who are we as a people? From the earliest times, our country has been a land of striking contrasts- enormous wealth and privilege enjoyed by a few alongside an austere life for the many. Even in the much-heralded pre-colonial era, when India's economy was the largest in the world, it was the kings, maharajas and merchants who were wealthy, while most people lived a frugal life. That is exactly how it is today, with a few wealthy individuals cornering a major portion of the nation's wealth leaving the rest of us to somehow get by in life. No doubt we have a growing middle class, some of whom have decent purchasing power, but no one can claim that there is an equitable distribution of wealth

Doesn't the fact that India has existed without major upheavals (like the frequent seismic revolutions in the Western world) for millennia say something about our worldview? We let things happen because they will and wait for the inevitable turning of the wheel. Gandhi knew this about us and, therefore, chose non-violence and passive resistance as the way to show the British that the wheel had turned and their time in India was up.

Gandhi knew the pulse and heartbeat of India like no one else. He felt that India's strength was its simplicity and the simple way of life. It gave the ordinary Indian a hard, but still content life, which was all that ultimately mattered according to Gandhi.

He didn't want the Industrial Revolution with all its so-called ideas of progress to contaminate the Indian way of life. He would have been likely horrified by the technology revolution that has so impacted India. He wouldn't have thought much of all the highways being constructed to the holiest religious shrines in ecologically sensitive zones, high in the Himalayas. The man who went on the celebrated Dandi march to protest the levying of a tax on the making of salt would much rather have people walk to pilgrimage centres than drive on all-weather roads in an SUV.

Our spiritual moorings are driven by a belief in karma, or rather the dispassionate performing of it, without being unduly perturbed by the consequences or lack of them. Life is an ever-turning cycle of good and bad resulting from how we conduct our lives. This helps us weather crisis after crisis with relative equanimity, keeping us sane and safe while the world around us goes mad.

The world today is rife with war, pandemics and economic and demographic slowdowns that could lead to even the demise of nations. Above all, there are all the indications of a collapsing world order leading to a long era of chaos and destabilisation. The world may fear its coming, but we in India know that it is a mere turn of the wheel.

 

Why brands and businesses are better served by human-written content than AI-generated content

 

The advent of Generative AI tools like ChatGPT and Google Gemini has seen brands and businesses worldwide turn to AI to create content.  The move seems logical as these seem to be able to create what appears to be extremely well-written content in moments, freeing marketing managers and business owners with the necessity of giving extensive briefs to their content writers, only to have them turn out content that often needs many iterations to finally reach a stage where it is ready for dissemination.

But are things really all that wonderful with using Generative AI to create content for businesses, or is this the entirely wrong way for a business to go about its business of creating content? According to Neil Patel, one of the foremost authorities on digital marketing in the world, human content performs better than AI content.[1] According to a study conducted by his team, human-generated content fared 5.44 times better in generating traffic than AI-generated content. It also found that every minute spent writing by humans received 4.10 visitors to 3.25 in the case of AI-generated content.  Patel attributed the superior performance of human-generated content on account of it being better with regard to emotion and context.

What is important to understand about writing great content is the fact that while Generative AI's ability to put across complex information in an easy-to-comprehend manner might be extraordinarily good, it is also important that it be done in the kind of language that resonates with the target audience in question. It is humans who are better at doing so, as unlike AI, they can truly know where their audience is coming from and contextualize the content for them. This is something that Generative AI struggles with as it is not adept at asking the right questions as it has lived experience and is totally bereft of emotional intelligence.

AI writing might be smart and efficient, but it lacks personality. It is more like the Nazi army’s blitzkrieg across Europe in the Second World War. Human writing on the other hand can be likened to Churchill’s, “We shall fight from the beaches--- speech.” We all know who finally won that epic war.

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[1] https://neilpatel.com/blog/ai-vs-human-content/

Landlocked India catching up with peninsular India?

 

Ever since colonial times, peninsular India has led the nation in terms of economic, social and human development indicators. The British and other colonial powers entered India by the sea route and their new-fangled European ideas shaped by the Industrial Revolution first struck root in the peninsular part of the country from where they worked their way up till they established their capital in Delhi, the seat of power for many northern empires since at least the medieval times.

Both the Northern and Southern (corresponding with peninsular India) parts of India had their fair share of empires and kingdoms down the ages, each of them contributing in their unique ways to the social, political and cultural landscapes of the vast Indian sub-continent. The coming of the Europeans upended centuries and even millennia-old ways of living that had developed and evolved locally in all parts of the country. The various regions of India interacted with and were influenced by one another and there was a lot of travel, trade and cultural exchange on the subcontinent that led to its forging a unique identity that nations and peoples around the world recognized as the Indian nation with its many Indian people.

The East India Company first marked their presence in Bombay, Madras and Calcutta, cities that they founded where they set up factories and trading posts that let them export cotton textiles from India to a ravenous West which had an insatiable demand for these products. It is no coincidence that these three cities continue to be amongst the largest metropolises of the nation with only their names having been Indianised as a nod to a pre-colonial past and heritage. From their bases in peninsular India, the British took it upon themselves to conquer the rest of India which was marginally helmed by a very decrepit and weakened Mughal empire constantly being challenged by emerging Maratha power and hundreds of kingdoms of myriad sizes spread across large parts of the country.

As a consequence of the rapacious and grossly exploitative policies of the British, first under the East India Company and later under the British Crown, the people of India saw not only their land turn from the richest nation in the world to among the poorest, but also their culture, language and way of life being undermined, leading them to fight for their freedom from the colonialists.

In the era leading up to independence, European merchants and traders found the peninsular region to be more attractive than the northern land-locked parts of India, on account of its accessibility and richness of resources. It was also politically more amenable to engage with overseas powers and entities due to its maritime tradition. That being the case, the northern parts of the country too were centres of considerable economic and trade activity, given that the declining Mughal and other North Indian kingdoms still had a legacy of economic activity that went back centuries.

Since independence, peninsular India has consolidated its natural advantages to become the engine of the nation’s economic growth. It boasts higher levels of education and income than the north of the country. A burgeoning middle class endow it with the right kind of human resources that make the region globally competitive.

The northern part of the country on the other hand has fared relatively poorly, as evidenced by the fact that it has some of the largest concentrations of mass poverty anywhere, often compared to sub-Saharan Africa. Though there are regional disparities in other nations of the world, the divide in India in terms of lop-sided economic development is quite stark.

Things, however, look to be changing with North India finally shaking off its languor and putting its foot on the gas pedal. According to Financial Times columnist, author and investor, Ruchir Sharma the average economic growth rate of southern Indian states in the 2007 to 2010 period went down from 7% to 6.5%, even while that of the northern parts went up substantially from 4.5 to 6%.[1] Further evidence of land-locked India's improving economic performance is found in the national state-wise per capita income figures which show Delhi at the number one spot, Chandigarh at number three, Haryana at number six and Uttarakhand at number eight. This compares quite favourably with the figures notched up by peninsular states with Kerala at number seven, Maharashtra at number nine, Karnataka at number ten, Tamil Nadu at number eleven, Telangana at number 12 and Andhra Pradesh at number eighteen.[2]

In terms of the Net Domestic Product of Indian states, the land-locked regions of the country are represented by UP at number three, and Rajasthan at number seven, while states from peninsular India dominate the rankings with Maharashtra at number one, Tamil Nadu at number two, Karnataka at number four, Gujarat at number five, West Bengal at number six and Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana at eight, nine and ten respectively.[3]

While the land-locked parts of the country have begun to get their act together to enhance their short, medium and long-term economic growth prospects, vis-à-vis their peninsular counterparts, it is obvious that there is still a fair distance to be covered. This is evident from the fact that the worst ten infant mortality rates pertain to land-locked states.[4]

The old clichés of the urbane, wealthy and well-educated southern part of the country versus the poorer, more populous and essentially rural parts of the northern land-locked region may be nothing more than crude generalisations, what with the emergence of technology hubs like Noida, Chandigarh, and Gurgaon in the North, but the fact remains that the latter have their tasks cut out, with regard to growing their regional economies and providing employment to their youth.

The difference in economic growth and development across different regions of the country is the result of a complex set of factors, not the least of which is the colonial legacy left behind by the British.  India was a flourishing economic entity before the colonialists subverted it.  Things, however, seem to have come a full circle with the Indian economy having grown larger than that of its erstwhile colonial masters and inching close towards the third spot. The lop-sided economic growth within the country is something that can be addressed as time goes by and India grows richer and richer.

 

 

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[1] https://www.firstpost.com/business/economy/can-north-india-overtake-arrogant-south-in-growth-292855.html

[2] https://theprint.in/economy/is-south-india-really-richer-than-the-north-three-charts-that-show-the-truth/103253/

[3][3] https://theprint.in/economy/is-south-india-really-richer-than-the-north-three-charts-that-show-the-truth/103253/

[4] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-62951951

Do Developers Need to Fear AI?

 Whether developers need to fear AI or look at it with hope is open to debate, but the fact of the matter is that they are all definitely nervous about what it entails for them.

These fears range from concerns about AI replacing them altogether to whether they will need to acquire new skills in a world where developers are increasingly using AI coding assistant tools to help them enhance both the quality of their coding and its output.

While there is no doubt about the fact that new-age AI tools like GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT, and Cognition AI’s Devin can do a lot of the stuff that software engineers do admirably well, their emergence on the scene might end up benefiting human developers than harming them. It will, in fact, make software development less dreary, thereby leading to enhanced productivity.

What’s more, by learning to collaborate with AI, developers could leverage the latter’s capabilities to come up with highly innovative solutions.

Far from fearing AI, developers should fearlessly embrace it. All that AI does is that it helps automate part of the software development process. What is important to note here is that software engineering requires much more than technical skills. It needs the essential human elements of critical thinking, creativity, and the ability to solve problems.

While AI tools may be able to perform tasks that involve typing keystrokes or searching for code snippets, these will not really be able to replace the critical thinking and decision-making that a human developer will be able to provide. It is human developers who have to describe the requirements that need to be catered to as well as perform the validation.

They also need to add value to the AI output at every stage. Above all, the accountability of the outcomes lies with them.

You have got to remember that human developers play a pivotal role in performing certain advanced tasks that might include things like coming up with solutions when confronted with unprecedented scenarios and situations. Designing software solutions architecture is again something that requires human skill and ingenuity.

Above all, communicating with the clients is not something that can be relegated to AI tools.

Human programmers bring more than their technical skills to the table. They have the experience of life itself and understand the business environment as well as the cultural context that it functions in which is beyond the capability of the existing AI tools.

These cannot be relied upon to make decisions with regard to the design to be implemented or even optimizing code, much less resolve problems or exhibit the dexterity required to accommodate ever-changing customer demands and requirements.

AI may indeed replace low-skilled coders, but at the same time, create a market for highly skilled experts able to provide the architectural vision and set the direction to be taken. It is not really replacing programmers, as it is empowering them by complimenting and enhancing their capabilities by enabling them to code much faster.

Even if the writing of code were to be taken over by AI completely, there would always be a demand for people who know what the code is all about to be able to not only review it but ensure that it is maintained and complied with. Just because AI can vastly enhance the quantity of code, written, it does not follow that quality will keep pace as well.

Human oversight will always be required to ensure that one is not swamped with unstructured and ill-defined code that is far from optimal for the purpose for which it was designed.

Besides, you cannot allow AI a free run by granting it total autonomy from human oversight-something that can prove very dangerous to humans as the likes of Elon Musk have repeatedly pointed out.

Conclusion

Developers don’t need to fear AI but adapt to it by upgrading their skills and capabilities. AI can be an effective tool in augmenting and enhancing the scope of what AI can do for humanity, but it would be foolhardy to trust a machine to make critical decisions on our behalf.

Human oversight is not only important but also imperative to ensure that we utilize AI for our good and benefit and not end up in a scenario straight out of a dysfunctional sci-fi scenario.

Could Modi 3.0 lead India to better times?

 Now that the din, noise and recriminations surrounding the 2024 Indian General Elections are over and Modi 3.0 is ready to roll out, may we get on with our lives and hope for better times ahead? Even the worst detractors of PM Modi cannot deny the fact that he has won what is a very creditable and almost unprecedented third term, falling short of a clear majority by 30 odd seats- a reasonably large shortfall, but not an alarming one (we have seen far worse in the past that proved to be remarkably stable).

While he may not have performed in accordance with the exceedingly high standards he set for himself, Modi has fared better than most political leaders around the world would have, when placed in a similar situation. It is, in fact, better that we have a much chastised (hopefully) Modi 3.0 shorn of hubris and arrogance which can get on with the unfinished business of making India the thirds largest economy in the world in the process ensuring that there is more broad based economic growth that benefits the masses, especially the young people.

A continuity of the governments policies would ensure that country maintains and indeed steps up the growth trajectory it is on. An economically stronger India would not only provide for its people, but would also help strengthen its geo-strategic position especially against arch-rival China, by shoring up and securing the nation's defenses against any external threats.

India is the fastest growing large economy in the world and is all poised to have its moment in the sun and become a breakout nation at last. The relatively strong and stable coalition government that will be sworn in on the 9th of June is well positioned to oversee that quantum leap in the nation's fortune. A strengthened opposition on its part can be the watchdog of the nation's democracy by ensuring that the government delivers what is expected of it by the people of India.

Will you lose your job to AI?

 AI seems to be putting the jobs of everybody at stake. After all, it can substitute humans quite easily at almost everything it does and come up with better results in a whole range of jobs traditionally thought to be the sole preserve of regular people. AI is known to write, code, program, analyse, interpret and do anything that a thinking person can do.

Where does that leave teachers, lawyers, clerks, technology workers, surgeons and indeed pilots and soldiers?  Will AI make them all redundant one not very far away day?

There will doubtless be job losses linked to AI adoption in the years ahead alongside new jobs that would have been created by it, but will all this be on a scale that ordinary folks going about the business of their life need to worry about? According to a Goldman Sachs forecast AI software may possibly automate the equivalent of as many as 300 million full-time roles worldwide by 2030.[1]

That notwithstanding the situation right now has more to do with companies figuring out if the high cost of AI deployment is worth the investment than actually replacing people on account of it. However, the situation is likely to evolve over the coming years, leading to an incremental increase in the adoption of AI around the world.

IMF estimates that AI will impact 40% of jobs worldwide by way of completely replacing some and complementing others.[2]It also holds that the impact of AI on jobs will be as much as 60% in advanced countries. It estimates that the impact of AI on jobs will be 40% in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries. While emerging markets and low-income countries may have less to fear from AI-caused job disruptions, these economies will, however, lose out on the economic benefits that accrue from the adoption of that technology. That will largely be on account of a paucity of infrastructure and skills required to usher in AI on scale. That in turn could result in lost economic opportunity sparking unemployment in the long run.

AI needs to benefit all-Inclusive AI

We already know about the deleterious impact of the digital divide on the equitable distribution of wealth and resources and have found ways and means to try and fix that. An AI divide on top of a digital divide would deliver a devastating double blow to vulnerable nations and peoples around the world.

The more AI becomes a part of every aspect of our lives, the more care needs to be exercised to ensure that it does not incorporate any kind of biases (algorithmic bias, confirmation bias, dataset bias, association bias and so on) that could disadvantage certain sections of people. This necessitates creating inclusive AI by way of putting diverse teams in place, using balanced datasets and developing a sophisticated understanding of the possible impact of bias on how AI functions.[3]

If deployed the right way AI can actually help the recruitment and hiring process by helping remove bias and making it more objective. It can also make the talent pool more broad-based. Besides, it helps provide fair access to employment opportunities and helps create an inclusive work culture.

Which jobs are most at risk?

The fact that AI will make some jobs redundant by taking them over partially or completely is undeniable and one should prepare for such a scenario in the very near future. Let us look at some professions which one can expect to be majorly impacted by automation in the next 5 to 10 years, especially in the developed world.

1. Computer Programmer

With Generative AI tools demonstrating its ability to write code flawlessly, it is a matter of time, before entry-level programming jobs disappear altogether.

2. Research Analyst

AI has the ability to perform the role of a marketing research analyst and financial analyst to some extent thanks to its ability to easily process large data sets and obtain cutting insights which it can then present in the shape of easy to comprehend visuals. Given that it can do this autonomously without human intervention, you do see a lot of these jobs disappearing.

3. Customer Service

One can see the evidence of this all around us what with the proliferation of chatbots and virtual assistants being able to manage a range of customer queries and requests. This is evident across a range of industries like utility services, providers, medical services, banks, car dealerships, et al. Even jobs like those of check-out clerks at grocery stores may be on their way out, on account of AI-powered self-checkout systems.

4. Paralegal

Given that AI can be easily deployed to collect facts pertaining to cases, carry out research and even write legal reports, the role of the paralegal may eventually become redundant.

5. Graphic Designers

The profession of a graphic designer is under direct threat from AI, what with the latter’s ability to create professional images and spectacular visuals. More and more businesses can be expected to rely less on human graphic designers and turn to AI ones instead.

What jobs are safe?

Howsoever capable AI may become, it is not even close to being a substitute for a human being with all their complexity, ingenuity and emotional capabilities. Let us look at the jobs that are not likely to be majorly impacted by the inexorable march of AI in our lives.

1. Artist

Artistic expression is a uniquely human trait that AI can at best only ape and never replace. There will always be a premium on original human creativity. Doubtless, there will always be artistic geniuses in the age of AI to inspire mankind.

2. Writer

AI tools may help the process of writing by helping with ideation here and there, but they can never replace a human writer in terms of their ability to express themselves in a unique human manner with all their idiosyncrasies and peculiar insights. Ernest Hemmingway is not making way for the Hemmingway app-ever!

3. Nurse

AI may help with routine tasks like moving medical supplies and extracting patient data, but it cannot step up to the plate and deliver face-to-face interactions that are so much an essential part of a nurse’s job. No robotic Florence Nightingales on the horizon anytime soon.

4. Psychiatrist

AI cannot possibly assume the role of a psychiatrist as it cannot listen to a patient’s problems and understand them on an emotional level. The world is facing a mental health crisis and psychiatrists play a very important role in helping people deal with such problems on account of their ability to help the latter navigate their feelings and emotional responses. This is something that is beyond the pale of AI’s abilities.

5. Lawyer

While AI has made inroads into the world of law, it cannot possibly step in to take the place of lawyers. AI does not possess any innate sense of ethics, which renders it incapable of stepping in for a lawyer well-versed in morals, ethics and knowledge of the law.

The path ahead?

AI is a revolutionary technology that promises to reshape human destiny in the same way that the harnessing of fire or the discovery of the wheel did. We are in the nascent stage of this seismic change in human destiny and one cannot predict where it takes us. But we will inevitably have to go along-hopefully for a better future for mankind.

Summary

AI's Impact on Jobs

• AI will automate many jobs, replacing some entirely and assisting others.
• Estimates suggest millions of jobs could be lost by 2030, but new ones will be created by AI as well.
• Developing countries may be less affected by job losses but miss out on economic benefits of AI.

Concerns about AI

• AI bias could disadvantage certain groups if not carefully developed and implemented.
• Some jobs are more at risk than others, such as: Computer programmers (due to generative AI); Research analysts (due to AI's data processing abilities); Customer service representatives (replaced by chatbots); Paralegals (AI can handle legal research and reports); Graphic designers (AI can create professional visuals)

Jobs Likely Safe from AI

• Jobs requiring human creativity, ingenuity, and emotional intelligence are less at risk, such as: Artists (AI can't replicate human artistic expression); Writers (AI can't replace human storytelling ability); Nurses (human interaction is crucial in nursing); Psychiatrists (AI can't understand emotions like humans); Lawyers (AI lacks the ethical understanding needed)

The Future of AI and Jobs

• AI is a transformative technology, and its impact on jobs is still unfolding.
• We need to prepare for the changes AI brings and ensure it benefits everyone.

[1] https://fortune.com/2024/05/19/ai-jobs-replacing-workers-learning-to-use-gen-ai-technology-ups-ibm-google/

[2] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity

[3] https://www.techopedia.com/inclusive-ai-why-we-all-need-to-care