Building India's Energy Security

Photo by Waldemar Brandt: https://www.pexels.com/photo/rusty-oil-barrels-stacked-3151717/

The ongoing Israeli-US war with Iran has drawn attention to India’s energy vulnerabilities like never before. Though it has ensured a steady supply of petrol, diesel, and kerosene thanks to some smart buying and leveraging its goodwill with the Americans, Russians and even Iranians, the shortfall in the supply of LPG cylinders did cause more than a measure of panic among many households and small businesses, especially in the restaurant and catering segments.

​For all of India’s demographic, economic and military heft, the fact that it imports 89% of its oil and 60% of its gas requirements, respectively, makes the country strategically hamstrung. What makes the situation worse is the fact that most oil and gas producing regions are prone to political and military volatility. The Middle East has always been one of the most potentially unstable areas of the world, with myriad unresolved issues simmering across nations. In this context, the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian regime is a worst-nightmare- come-true scenario for the world oil economy.

If this wasn’t bad enough, the other major oil producer of the world, Russia, had already become a global pariah after its annexation of Crimea and the subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Buying oil from them attracts the risk of international sanctions and punitive tariffs in the Trumpian era. At the same time, diversifying one’s purchases and sourcing oil and gas from half a world away from the Americas does not seem to be a tenable long-term solution.

​With India meeting only about 15% of its oil requirements through domestic production which is less than the about 27%  in the case of China, its reliance on imports can prove to be its Achilles heel in the global geostrategic sweepstakes. Things are a lot better with regard to gas production, though, with India being able to meet 50% of its requirements via domestic production.

​India needs to work on building its energy security edifice so as to inure itself against global geostrategic pulls and pressures. If it is to achieve its destiny as a global power counted amongst the top three nations of the world, it needs to achieve 100 percent energy security like the US has.

​How to achieve 100% energy security?

​India can and should strive to achieve 100% energy security through a combination of measures. These include increasing domestic production of oil and gas by way of enhanced exploration, increased use of bio-fuels like ethanol and large-scale promotion of clean alternative sources of energy like solar, wind, thermal and green hydrogen. At the same time, nuclear energy should be turned to as a significant component of the Indian energy grid, as it is an efficient and relatively less polluting source of abundant energy. Given that India, like most large economies of the world, is committed towards drawing more and more energy from clean, renewable sources like wind and solar power, there should be enough provision of storing electricity to ensure a steady supply even when the sun has set or the wind is not blowing. A nationwide power inventory system needs to ensure that surplus power regions seamlessly transfer electricity to regions of deficit.

​Though India has abundant reserves of coal, which help it generate most of its electricity, transitioning to greener energy is in India’s interest, as climate change is a big issue impacting the nation’s future well-being. At the same time, the fact that these reserves exist acts as an effective hedge against any energy blackmail India might face in an era fraught with geopolitical tensions.

Given that a lot is set in store on battery power, especially in transportation, India should redouble its efforts to find new domestic sources of lithium and cobalt to help power this transition. Helping the nation achieve 100% energy security is a nation building activity in which the citizenry should be encouraged to build a stake. A great example of this is the rooftop solar installation drive, which allows lay people to contribute to the national security grid.

​100% energy security can be achieved by India if it gets into mission mode. This has something that has to be done if the long heralded India story is to finally see fruition.

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The Indian Wellness Industry is Growing and How

 

Photo by Pixabay: https://www.pexels.com/photo/stacked-of-stones-outdoors-289586/

India, the birthplace of yoga, the millennia-old system of achieving physical, mental, and spiritual wellness, is rightfully seeing a huge rise in the formal wellness industry. That a land which always emphasised that the purpose of life was to strike the right balance in whatever one undertook in life, should now prioritise personal well-being over mindless “growth” and accumulation of material assets, is something that signifies a homecoming of sorts.

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People have come to understand that the conventional approach to healthcare and wellness, which often involves expensive treatments and healing, is all very well, but adopting a preventive, wellness-oriented lifestyle may help them lead fuller and healthier lives. India, with its traditions of yoga and ayurveda, which evolved from the soil of this land, is best suited to evolve a wellness culture that combines the ancient wisdom of the land with the best modern scientific practices in the realm of health and wellness.

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Given the growing awareness of lifestyle diseases resulting from modern, fast-paced lifestylesit is not surprising that the Indian health and wellness market achieved an impressive market size of $156 billion in 2024. This figure is expected to reach as high a figure as $256.9 billion by 2033, representing a CAGR growth of 5.3% in the 2025-33 time period.As a matter of fact, India is poised to benefit substantially from the growing international wellness tourism industry as well, which is expected to reach $1.3 trillion in size this year.  

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There are several factors that are propelling this stupendous growth in the Indian wellness industry in particular, which is expected to achieve a market size of $72 billion by the end of 2025. The Indian  corporate wellness market, which achieved a creditable $639.1 million revenue in 2024 is projected to hit $809 billion in 2030 representing a CAGR of 4% in the 2025-30 time period.

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The employment generation potential of the wellness industry too is quite large on account of the growing demand for qualified and experienced professionals who can help wellness companies meet the ever growing demand for their products and services. This is amply demonstrated by the fact that the beauty and wellness segment employs as many as 12.3 million people. What’s more, 66% of such employees are women. Hearteningly, the number of people employed in the sector is expected to grow to about 20.3 million by 2027.

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Furthermore, in light of the growing importance given to personal wellbeing in the post pandemic era, more and more people are looking to India for solutions, given its association with yoga, ayurveda, and a rich age age-old tradition of turning to nature for wellness and good health. Large numbers of Indian and foreign tourists have started taking regular wellness holidays. This explains why the Indian wellness tourism  industry boasted a value of $19.43 billion in 2024, which is expected to reach $29.88 billion in 2031, achieving a CAGR of 6.45%.

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One of the most important reasons for the rapid growth of the Indian wellness industry has to be the massive growth in digitisation witnessed in the country. With a very high smartphone penetration, more and more people are accessing wellness services via healthcare apps and online platforms.

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The government’s promotion of digital healthcare through its Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission has played an important role in raising awareness about the need for a comprehensive digital health approach in the country. It is not surprising, then, that the Indian digital fitness and welfare platforms market is already valued at $1.5 billion.

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The Indian wellness industry is definitely a bright spot on the Indian economic horizon, with plenty of tailwinds to ensure its exponential rise in the times ahead.

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Landlocked India catching up with peninsular India?

 

Ever since colonial times, peninsular India has led the nation in terms of economic, social and human development indicators. The British and other colonial powers entered India by the sea route and their new-fangled European ideas shaped by the Industrial Revolution first struck root in the peninsular part of the country from where they worked their way up till they established their capital in Delhi, the seat of power for many northern empires since at least the medieval times.

Both the Northern and Southern (corresponding with peninsular India) parts of India had their fair share of empires and kingdoms down the ages, each of them contributing in their unique ways to the social, political and cultural landscapes of the vast Indian sub-continent. The coming of the Europeans upended centuries and even millennia-old ways of living that had developed and evolved locally in all parts of the country. The various regions of India interacted with and were influenced by one another and there was a lot of travel, trade and cultural exchange on the subcontinent that led to its forging a unique identity that nations and peoples around the world recognized as the Indian nation with its many Indian people.

The East India Company first marked their presence in Bombay, Madras and Calcutta, cities that they founded where they set up factories and trading posts that let them export cotton textiles from India to a ravenous West which had an insatiable demand for these products. It is no coincidence that these three cities continue to be amongst the largest metropolises of the nation with only their names having been Indianised as a nod to a pre-colonial past and heritage. From their bases in peninsular India, the British took it upon themselves to conquer the rest of India which was marginally helmed by a very decrepit and weakened Mughal empire constantly being challenged by emerging Maratha power and hundreds of kingdoms of myriad sizes spread across large parts of the country.

As a consequence of the rapacious and grossly exploitative policies of the British, first under the East India Company and later under the British Crown, the people of India saw not only their land turn from the richest nation in the world to among the poorest, but also their culture, language and way of life being undermined, leading them to fight for their freedom from the colonialists.

In the era leading up to independence, European merchants and traders found the peninsular region to be more attractive than the northern land-locked parts of India, on account of its accessibility and richness of resources. It was also politically more amenable to engage with overseas powers and entities due to its maritime tradition. That being the case, the northern parts of the country too were centres of considerable economic and trade activity, given that the declining Mughal and other North Indian kingdoms still had a legacy of economic activity that went back centuries.

Since independence, peninsular India has consolidated its natural advantages to become the engine of the nation’s economic growth. It boasts higher levels of education and income than the north of the country. A burgeoning middle class endow it with the right kind of human resources that make the region globally competitive.

The northern part of the country on the other hand has fared relatively poorly, as evidenced by the fact that it has some of the largest concentrations of mass poverty anywhere, often compared to sub-Saharan Africa. Though there are regional disparities in other nations of the world, the divide in India in terms of lop-sided economic development is quite stark.

Things, however, look to be changing with North India finally shaking off its languor and putting its foot on the gas pedal. According to Financial Times columnist, author and investor, Ruchir Sharma the average economic growth rate of southern Indian states in the 2007 to 2010 period went down from 7% to 6.5%, even while that of the northern parts went up substantially from 4.5 to 6%.[1] Further evidence of land-locked India's improving economic performance is found in the national state-wise per capita income figures which show Delhi at the number one spot, Chandigarh at number three, Haryana at number six and Uttarakhand at number eight. This compares quite favourably with the figures notched up by peninsular states with Kerala at number seven, Maharashtra at number nine, Karnataka at number ten, Tamil Nadu at number eleven, Telangana at number 12 and Andhra Pradesh at number eighteen.[2]

In terms of the Net Domestic Product of Indian states, the land-locked regions of the country are represented by UP at number three, and Rajasthan at number seven, while states from peninsular India dominate the rankings with Maharashtra at number one, Tamil Nadu at number two, Karnataka at number four, Gujarat at number five, West Bengal at number six and Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana at eight, nine and ten respectively.[3]

While the land-locked parts of the country have begun to get their act together to enhance their short, medium and long-term economic growth prospects, vis-à-vis their peninsular counterparts, it is obvious that there is still a fair distance to be covered. This is evident from the fact that the worst ten infant mortality rates pertain to land-locked states.[4]

The old clichés of the urbane, wealthy and well-educated southern part of the country versus the poorer, more populous and essentially rural parts of the northern land-locked region may be nothing more than crude generalisations, what with the emergence of technology hubs like Noida, Chandigarh, and Gurgaon in the North, but the fact remains that the latter have their tasks cut out, with regard to growing their regional economies and providing employment to their youth.

The difference in economic growth and development across different regions of the country is the result of a complex set of factors, not the least of which is the colonial legacy left behind by the British.  India was a flourishing economic entity before the colonialists subverted it.  Things, however, seem to have come a full circle with the Indian economy having grown larger than that of its erstwhile colonial masters and inching close towards the third spot. The lop-sided economic growth within the country is something that can be addressed as time goes by and India grows richer and richer.

 

 

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[1] https://www.firstpost.com/business/economy/can-north-india-overtake-arrogant-south-in-growth-292855.html

[2] https://theprint.in/economy/is-south-india-really-richer-than-the-north-three-charts-that-show-the-truth/103253/

[3][3] https://theprint.in/economy/is-south-india-really-richer-than-the-north-three-charts-that-show-the-truth/103253/

[4] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-62951951

Time for India to gain back its position as the richest country in the world

 

Photo by Sohel Patel: https://www.pexels.com/photo/50-indian-rupee-banknote-68912/

To the woke-liberal lot any assertion that India was once the richest country in the world will evoke hysterical laughter and probably a familiar jibe that it was impossible for India to ever have been the proverbial soney ki chidya (golden bird). But facts speak otherwise. India was indisputably the largest economy in the world between the first century AD and the seventeenth century AD accounting for one third or one fourth of global wealth. India’s GDP in 1700, in terms of 1990 international dollars was $90,750 as compared to $82,800 of China’s and $83,395 for the whole of Western Europe. Considering that the world GDP in that year was $371,369, India’s share of the global economy was an astounding 24.43%.[1]

What caused the downfall?

From a high of more than 24% of the world economy in 1700 to 4% of global GDP at the end of British rule, India’s fall from its preeminent position at the top to the very bottom was a direct consequence of the pernicious impact of colonial rule. Britain’s rise to be the largest empire ever known to mankind occurred during the course of its 200 year rule in India and was financed by the wholesale looting of India and the asset stripping of its economy. It is not surprising that the Hindi word loot meaning large scale theft, made its way to the English language. Evidence of that loot can still be found in the museums, private collections and imperial treasury of modern Britain. The most emblematic of this is the famed Kohinoor diamond.

So thoroughly did the British devastate and enervate the Indian economy that even today, seventy six years after independence, large numbers of its people suffer from poverty, lack of access to clean drinking water, access to healthcare and education. That is not to take away from the vast change that has come over the country, which is now acknowledged as a global economic power boasting the fifth largest economy in the world having overtaken its erstwhile colonial master Britain.

It has seen the emergence of a 432 million strong middle class (2020-21 figures) which is expected to hit 1.66 billion in 2047.[2] Creditably as many as 415 million people were lifted out of poverty in 15 years between 2005 and 2021[3]. India is a technology and space powerhouse that commands global respect for its accomplishments. Its diaspora has reached every part of the globe with people of Indian origin reaching the highest positions in corporations and governments of some of the leading first world nations. India also has a sizeable military which acts as a force of global stability-something that was evidenced by India’s naval operations against international pirates in the Arabian Sea region.

Can India become the richest country in the world again?

At a time when most people in the world expect China to replace the US as the numero uno nation, it is important to remember that India was largely a bigger economy of the two in the years leading up to the colonial era. Given the slew of recent bad news trickling out of China, in terms of its collapsing demographics and slowing down industries, India which is the fastest growing large economy in the world with a much younger demographic profile stands a good chance of racing ahead in the not so distant future.

India is one of the very few countries in the world that not only grows enough food to feed its own people, but also export it. Besides, its geographical position that allows it to straddle the important sea routes that pass below its peninsula means that it will never be vulnerable, when it comes to sourcing its energy supplies.

What do the facts state? An Ernst and Young report suggests that India could become a $26 trillion economy by 2047, boasting a per capita income of more than $15000 by then?[4] Goldman Sachs on the other hand predicts that India will become the world’s second largest economy by 2075, overtaking the US in the process.[5] A study by Citi Group actually expects India to be the largest economy in the world by 2050 with an $85.97 trillion GDP by Purchasing Power Parity, followed by China at $80.02 trillion and the US at $39.07 trillion. That will translate to a per capita income of more than $50,000 per capita income considering the nation’s population to be 1.63 billion.[6]

Will India do it? It’s not going to be easy. But it has done it in the past and held on to that position for a millennium and a half. It is said that what goes around comes around. It is India’s time now. Let it rise and rise.

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[1] https://cgijeddah.gov.in/web_files/267622636-History-of-Indian-Economy.pdf

[2] https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/indian-middle-class-will-nearly-double-to-61-by-2046-47-price-report-123070500864_1.html

[3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/415-million-people-exited-poverty-in-india-in-15-years-un-report/articleshow/101678289.cms

[4] https://assets.ey.com/content/dam/ey-sites/ey-com/en_in/topics/india-at-100/2023/01/ey-india-at-100-executive-summary.pdf

[5] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/10/india-to-become-worlds-second-largest-economy-by-2075-goldman-sachs.html

[6] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/with-85-trillion-how-india-can-become-worlds-largest-economy/articleshow/10699821.cms