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| Photo by Sohel Patel: https://www.pexels.com/photo/50-indian-rupee-banknote-68912/ |
To the woke-liberal lot any assertion that India was once the richest country in the world will evoke hysterical laughter and probably a familiar jibe that it was impossible for India to ever have been the proverbial soney ki chidya (golden bird). But facts speak otherwise. India was indisputably the largest economy in the world between the first century AD and the seventeenth century AD accounting for one third or one fourth of global wealth. India’s GDP in 1700, in terms of 1990 international dollars was $90,750 as compared to $82,800 of China’s and $83,395 for the whole of Western Europe. Considering that the world GDP in that year was $371,369, India’s share of the global economy was an astounding 24.43%.[1]
What caused the downfall?
From a high of more than 24% of the world economy in 1700 to 4% of global GDP at the end of British rule, India’s fall from its preeminent position at the top to the very bottom was a direct consequence of the pernicious impact of colonial rule. Britain’s rise to be the largest empire ever known to mankind occurred during the course of its 200 year rule in India and was financed by the wholesale looting of India and the asset stripping of its economy. It is not surprising that the Hindi word loot meaning large scale theft, made its way to the English language. Evidence of that loot can still be found in the museums, private collections and imperial treasury of modern Britain. The most emblematic of this is the famed Kohinoor diamond.
So thoroughly did the British devastate and enervate the Indian economy that even today, seventy six years after independence, large numbers of its people suffer from poverty, lack of access to clean drinking water, access to healthcare and education. That is not to take away from the vast change that has come over the country, which is now acknowledged as a global economic power boasting the fifth largest economy in the world having overtaken its erstwhile colonial master Britain.
It has seen the emergence of a 432 million strong middle class (2020-21 figures) which is expected to hit 1.66 billion in 2047.[2] Creditably as many as 415 million people were lifted out of poverty in 15 years between 2005 and 2021[3]. India is a technology and space powerhouse that commands global respect for its accomplishments. Its diaspora has reached every part of the globe with people of Indian origin reaching the highest positions in corporations and governments of some of the leading first world nations. India also has a sizeable military which acts as a force of global stability-something that was evidenced by India’s naval operations against international pirates in the Arabian Sea region.
Can India become the richest country in the world again?
At a time when most people in the world expect China to replace the US as the numero uno nation, it is important to remember that India was largely a bigger economy of the two in the years leading up to the colonial era. Given the slew of recent bad news trickling out of China, in terms of its collapsing demographics and slowing down industries, India which is the fastest growing large economy in the world with a much younger demographic profile stands a good chance of racing ahead in the not so distant future.
India is one of the very few countries in the world that not only grows enough food to feed its own people, but also export it. Besides, its geographical position that allows it to straddle the important sea routes that pass below its peninsula means that it will never be vulnerable, when it comes to sourcing its energy supplies.
What do the facts state? An Ernst and Young report suggests that India could become a $26 trillion economy by 2047, boasting a per capita income of more than $15000 by then?[4] Goldman Sachs on the other hand predicts that India will become the world’s second largest economy by 2075, overtaking the US in the process.[5] A study by Citi Group actually expects India to be the largest economy in the world by 2050 with an $85.97 trillion GDP by Purchasing Power Parity, followed by China at $80.02 trillion and the US at $39.07 trillion. That will translate to a per capita income of more than $50,000 per capita income considering the nation’s population to be 1.63 billion.[6]
Will India do it? It’s not going to be easy. But it has done it in the past and held on to that position for a millennium and a half. It is said that what goes around comes around. It is India’s time now. Let it rise and rise.
[1] https://cgijeddah.gov.in/web_files/267622636-History-of-Indian-Economy.pdf
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