Is the Honeymoon With Generative AI Over or Just Beginning?

 The advent of Generative AI was presumably the most paradigm-redefining event for not just the technology industry but humanity itself. From industries across the board to governments seeking to leverage its abilities, Generative AI promised to make unheard-of productivity and efficiency levels possible.

The fact that it was able to analyze humongous quantities of data in real-time and ferret out actionable insights, made it the go-to technology for everyone ranging from healthcare, marketing and retail to education, finance, and transportation as well as everything else, besides.

This was amply demonstrated in the humongous amount of investment racked up by it in the recent past. Last year saw the technology supported by a whopping $21.3 billion of which Open AI got the lion's share of $10 billion. The first quarter of 2024 saw an investment of US 3 billion, which may reach 12 billion by the end of the year.[1]

Waning Interest?

The fact that there is considerably less investment in 2024 in Generative AI than in 2023 could point to a waning interest in Generative AI or be a breather for the already substantial investment to bear fruit, before resuming in a giddy rush of exuberance that characterized the initial phase. The thing to understand about Generative AI is the fact that it seems to be focused on prompting efficiency and productivity, apart from reducing costs, and it does not really seem to have a clear trajectory with regard to innovation and growth.

Not much seems to have been accomplished by way of zeroing in on those who would help take Generative AI to the next level, or on how it will be governed and the risks that it may pose.[2]

The biggest drawback of Generative AI is the fact that it’s outpouring of content that has driven out genuine high-quality human-driven content may lead to a scenario in which all future AI models may only have its self-generated content to help model their output. What's the point of it all, if all that Generative AI does is make a fool of you with perennially regurgitated nonsense?[3]

All the hoopla around Generative AI is premised on the assumption that its growth is inexorable, exponential, and inevitable. There isn't much sane deliberation around the fact if it is actually the case or like other technologies before it, it has a high point, a plateauing moment, and then a downslide. Leaders in positions of authority need to make considered decisions about the adoption of Generative AI and adopt it only if it promises to bring some value to their businesses.

Conclusion

The sheen seems to be wearing off Generative AI what with governments seeking to regulate the technology, creators bringing about lawsuits for infringement of copyrights, and everybody expressing concerns about privacy.[4]

There are, however, those who believe that it will see massive adoption in the years ahead with Gartner estimating that 75% of businesses will deploy Generative AI to create synthetic customer data, something that a mere 5% of them do so at present. This is something that allows businesses to simulate environments that help them zero in on new product development opportunities.[5]

So, the jury is out on Generative AI. Let's see where the billions invested in it take it.

[1] https://www.ey.com/en_ie/news/2024/05/generative-ai-venture-capital-investment-globally-on-track-to-reach-12-billion-dollar-in-2024-following-breakout-year-in-2023#:~:text=2024%20Dublin%2C%20IE-,Generative%20AI%20Venture%20Capital%20Investment%20Globally%20On%20Track%20To%20Reach,following%20breakout%20year%20in%202023

[2] https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consulting/us-state-of-gen-ai-report.pdf

[3] https://hbr.org/2023/11/has-generative-ai-peaked

[4] https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/8/19/23837705/openai-chatgpt-microsoft-bing-google-generating-less-interest

[5] https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/3-bold-and-actionable-predictions-for-the-future-of-genai#:~:text=Generative%20AI%20technologies%20will%20greatly,technology%20companies%20and%20research%20labs.