Bracing for a tougher world order

 

Photo by Porapak Apichodilok: https://www.pexels.com/photo/person-holding-world-globe-facing-mountain-346885/

The benign world that we have been used to for nearly eighty years is about to come to an end. This was the most glorious era, Earth had ever witnessed in terms of the nations of the world coming together to usher in an era of trade, cultural osmosis, incredible scientific discoveries, setting up of global institutions that worked for the collective good of mankind and the emergence of a largely peaceful worldwide climate of aspiring to a tomorrow that is better than yesterday.

This was the era that saw the end of colonialism and the Cold War and the emergence of a global network of trade and commerce that saw wealth creation on an unparalleled scale in nations across the world that had hitherto known only scarcity. This helped millions of people emerge from the shackles of poverty and deprivation and dream big.

It was thought that the international networks of mutual interest had made war and conflict largely redundant and with the emergence of the technology revolution, it was thought the word was on a high speed ride to utopia. But alas, this was all a pipe dream, which is now rapidly unravelling before our eyes.

The post Second World War global order of peace, stability, seamless international trade, the sanctity of international borders and adhering to the rule of law was something that the sole super power of the time the US was largely responsible for putting in place. This seemingly altruistic and benign act on their part was driven by their desire to incentivize the nations of the world to be on their side in their ideological and geostrategic battle against their primary rival, the Soviet Union.

Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US has been losing interest in supporting the global order it so carefully nurtured and set up. It may have been done with purely strategic intent, but it enabled Europe and Japan to rebuild their wealth and nations like China and India become formidable economic powers. More importantly it helped economically backward nations to industrialise and raise the living standards of millions and millions of people living in the Third World.

As things stand now a powerful China, which rose to be the second largest economy in the world and a formidable military power on account of the US’s policy of détente initiated in the 1970’s to wean the communist giant away from the Soviet Union is its biggest strategic threat and rival. On the other hand a bitter Russia seething from the loss of its Soviet Empire and the diminishing of its strategic sphere of influence, Eastern Europe has brought the world to the doorstep of a catastrophic Third World War with its dastardly misadventure in Ukraine.

It no longer suits the US to support the global strategic order it had itself carefully built up and it is busy dismantling it. It has withdrawn from the Paris climate accord, exited the WHO, and postponed funding to USA Aid. It has threatened and brow beaten Europe into enhancing their contributions to NATO and to think in terms of being responsible for their own defense at a time when a revisionist Russia threatens to upend East Europe.  

The US of today does not distinguish between foes and allies and wields the stick against both whenever it suits it. In a bid to reduce its humongous debt it has proposed reciprocal tariff on goods and services it imports from nations across the world. The only way around that is to sign bi lateral trade deals with the US on terms that favour the latter.

There is a new world order emerging and it is not a pretty one. It is reminiscent of the way the world was till the era of the two World Wars. This was the time when nations invaded one another and subjugated the defeated nations. It was an era of famines, diseases and horrible genocides. Look at the world around you. Russia and Europe are locked in mortal combat with Europe cowering in fear.  An ambitious China, though beset with demographic problems is casting covetous eyes on not just Taiwan, but also most of its neighbour in almost all geographical directions. The Middle East is a constant cauldron of trouble and much of Africa is in the midst of endemic civil war. The global supply chains are under the severest stress and catastrophic global warming is already upon us. Brace for a tougher world order? That is the least that we can do.

 

Time for Fortress India

Photo by Frans van Heerden: https://www.pexels.com/photo/photo-of-castle-under-clouds-1022698/

The world faces an epochal change in the way that the post Second World War global order, put in place by the United States and its allies is getting replaced by one in which nations are being increasingly guided by narrow self-interest and forging strictly transactional relations with other nations, in place of strategic alliances. The Americans who propped up the now fast disappearing global order that put a premium on international trade and stability are increasingly playing a diminishing role in ensuring that there is order and respect for rules and conventions in different parts of the globe. The troops pull-out in Afghanistan is, just a culmination of their lack of interest in what goes on in other parts of their world as long as the US and its people get by just fine.

Their sole long term now objective is to ensure that a rising belligerent China does not replace the hitherto American led global world order with a Chinese led one-not because of American hubris, but because a rising threat would prove to be detrimental to their long term national security threat. They may have been temporarily forced to play a prominent global role again thanks to the happenings in Ukraine and Israel, but their primary focus is China and the Indo-Pacific region.

That explains their burgeoning strategic relationship with India which they want to build up as a strategic bulwark against Chinese expansionism. This suits India as well, who have the misfortune of having to be sandwiched between two sworn enemies on its western and eastern flanks. While Pakistan with its collapsing and imploding economy can be dealt with by India quite easily, it is China with its much larger economy and expanding defense forces that shows every intention of using force to seize Indian territory that requires India to shore up its defense capabilities like never before .

It is, therefore, in India’s interest to join forces with the United States and its allies in trying to contain China.  The unreliability of a steady supply of weapons from a failing Russia has also necessitated that India buy more and more arms from the West, which it is doing. Its entering into the QUAD alliance which envisages close strategic relations with the US, Australia and Japan is also a step in the right direction. While India’s growing ties with the West in the economic, cultural and strategic spheres are indeed very welcome and in its national interest, one should never lose sight of the fact that the new found bonhomie is on account of strategic reasons and not on account of any special affinity the West has for India.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. India has a lot going for it. It has the world’s largest population, most of which is young and able to work unlike the rapidly declining and fast aging population of China. Its economy which is already the fifth largest in the world is going to hit $5 trillion by 2027 with India becoming the third largest market in the world, on account of it being the fastest growing large economy on Earth.

India is self-sufficient in food in an era where the very real specter of global food shortage is spooking half the world (including China). That counts for a lot in a world threatened by climate change, global pandemics and internecine warfare in different parts of the world. In the days ahead, the world will need India more than it needs the world. Look at the way the British are pursuing India to sign a trade deal with them. People of Indian origin are working and doing well for themselves in all parts of the world, thanks to their great work ethic and the drive to excel giving India an increasing say in world affairs. India as a nation is not averse to projecting power overseas when required. Look at the way it organized the rescue of Indians and indeed citizens of other countries in conflict zones like Ukraine and Israel.

While India should engage with the world, where its interests are involved, it should do so strictly on a transactional basis like the US does. Ever since the latter have acquired energy security, they have largely lost interest in the Middle East, withdrawing from Iraq at the first opportunity. Once they had Bin Laden, they lost interest in Afghanistan and withdrew. Today they are engaged in an epic mission of degrading China’s manufacturing capabilities and ridding the world of over reliance on the Chinese dominated global supply chains, by shifting manufacturing to other countries and increasingly back to the US or its neighbouring nations on the American continents like Mexico.

 

Long before they and their sworn allies lose interest in India strategically, India should like the US become a self-contained world in itself where it manufactures all or most of its defense equipment itself, and grows its economy by catering to its large domestic market, apart from its exports. That will ensure, it does not have to fear being left high and dry by any other nation it took to be its lifeline. India with its long experience in maintaining a neutral nonaligned position on world affairs from the days of the Nonaligned Movement is well positioned to do so.

Besides, the world is increasingly going to need India with its large market, its technological prowess, its military might capable of force projection beyond the borders if required, its ability to grow enough food to not just feed a billion and a half people but for export to other nations as well. Its fortuitous geographical position where all the major sea lanes pass below it gives it a vantage position to not just protect its maritime interests, but also ensure that nothing detrimental to its interests happens in the region.

Fortress India can not only secure the future of its citizens for perpetuity, but also become a force for global good, and a template of self-reliant progress that others can emulate.