Time for Fortress India

Photo by Frans van Heerden: https://www.pexels.com/photo/photo-of-castle-under-clouds-1022698/

The world faces an epochal change in the way that the post Second World War global order, put in place by the United States and its allies is getting replaced by one in which nations are being increasingly guided by narrow self-interest and forging strictly transactional relations with other nations, in place of strategic alliances. The Americans who propped up the now fast disappearing global order that put a premium on international trade and stability are increasingly playing a diminishing role in ensuring that there is order and respect for rules and conventions in different parts of the globe. The troops pull-out in Afghanistan is, just a culmination of their lack of interest in what goes on in other parts of their world as long as the US and its people get by just fine.

Their sole long term now objective is to ensure that a rising belligerent China does not replace the hitherto American led global world order with a Chinese led one-not because of American hubris, but because a rising threat would prove to be detrimental to their long term national security threat. They may have been temporarily forced to play a prominent global role again thanks to the happenings in Ukraine and Israel, but their primary focus is China and the Indo-Pacific region.

That explains their burgeoning strategic relationship with India which they want to build up as a strategic bulwark against Chinese expansionism. This suits India as well, who have the misfortune of having to be sandwiched between two sworn enemies on its western and eastern flanks. While Pakistan with its collapsing and imploding economy can be dealt with by India quite easily, it is China with its much larger economy and expanding defense forces that shows every intention of using force to seize Indian territory that requires India to shore up its defense capabilities like never before .

It is, therefore, in India’s interest to join forces with the United States and its allies in trying to contain China.  The unreliability of a steady supply of weapons from a failing Russia has also necessitated that India buy more and more arms from the West, which it is doing. Its entering into the QUAD alliance which envisages close strategic relations with the US, Australia and Japan is also a step in the right direction. While India’s growing ties with the West in the economic, cultural and strategic spheres are indeed very welcome and in its national interest, one should never lose sight of the fact that the new found bonhomie is on account of strategic reasons and not on account of any special affinity the West has for India.

Nothing happens in a vacuum. India has a lot going for it. It has the world’s largest population, most of which is young and able to work unlike the rapidly declining and fast aging population of China. Its economy which is already the fifth largest in the world is going to hit $5 trillion by 2027 with India becoming the third largest market in the world, on account of it being the fastest growing large economy on Earth.

India is self-sufficient in food in an era where the very real specter of global food shortage is spooking half the world (including China). That counts for a lot in a world threatened by climate change, global pandemics and internecine warfare in different parts of the world. In the days ahead, the world will need India more than it needs the world. Look at the way the British are pursuing India to sign a trade deal with them. People of Indian origin are working and doing well for themselves in all parts of the world, thanks to their great work ethic and the drive to excel giving India an increasing say in world affairs. India as a nation is not averse to projecting power overseas when required. Look at the way it organized the rescue of Indians and indeed citizens of other countries in conflict zones like Ukraine and Israel.

While India should engage with the world, where its interests are involved, it should do so strictly on a transactional basis like the US does. Ever since the latter have acquired energy security, they have largely lost interest in the Middle East, withdrawing from Iraq at the first opportunity. Once they had Bin Laden, they lost interest in Afghanistan and withdrew. Today they are engaged in an epic mission of degrading China’s manufacturing capabilities and ridding the world of over reliance on the Chinese dominated global supply chains, by shifting manufacturing to other countries and increasingly back to the US or its neighbouring nations on the American continents like Mexico.

 

Long before they and their sworn allies lose interest in India strategically, India should like the US become a self-contained world in itself where it manufactures all or most of its defense equipment itself, and grows its economy by catering to its large domestic market, apart from its exports. That will ensure, it does not have to fear being left high and dry by any other nation it took to be its lifeline. India with its long experience in maintaining a neutral nonaligned position on world affairs from the days of the Nonaligned Movement is well positioned to do so.

Besides, the world is increasingly going to need India with its large market, its technological prowess, its military might capable of force projection beyond the borders if required, its ability to grow enough food to not just feed a billion and a half people but for export to other nations as well. Its fortuitous geographical position where all the major sea lanes pass below it gives it a vantage position to not just protect its maritime interests, but also ensure that nothing detrimental to its interests happens in the region.

Fortress India can not only secure the future of its citizens for perpetuity, but also become a force for global good, and a template of self-reliant progress that others can emulate.