India-US Relations Beyond Trump's Tariffs

Image courtesy of Google's Gemini AI

While the whole nation seethes with righteous and definitely justified anger at the US President, Donald Trump's bizarre decision to impose an appallingly high 50% tariff on Indian goods imported into America, there is an  urgent need to look at the issue dispassionately and not get weighed down by emotion.

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It is true that the reason for imposing an additional 25% tariff on the importing of cheap Russian oil by India is pure hypocrisy, as both China and Europe individually buy more energy from that country. Besides, the US itself trades with Russia in a not-so-insubstantial manner. To add insult to injury, Trump has also decided to cosy up to the quasi-dictator of Pakistan, Asif Munir. That being stated, the answer to the bullying tactics of the present American administration is not to rush into the arms of revisionist, dictatorial regimes like those of China and Russia. Add to that the fact that China has illegally occupied vast tracts of Indian land and continues to view India as a rival and a threat to its rise, we have every reason to tread carefully.

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This is the same China that fully supported our belligerent Western neighbour, Pakistan, during Operation Sindoor. Russia is in no position to be a strategic asset for India, given that it is in the doghouse owing to its ill-advised Ukraine war. What’s worse is that it is beholden to China for its very survival. Besides, it has only caused trouble for India on account of its habit of invading nations here and there. Its entry into Afghanistan in the 1980s saw the rise of Islamist terrorism in India’s neighbourhood, and its invasion of Ukraine has thrown a spanner in budding Indo-US relations.

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The Indian-US strategic relationship was carefully crafted over the last two decades and makes as much sense today as it did six months ago. That a mercurial US president, who has troubled relations with all of his nation’s allies and close friends, is giving India a lot of grief is undisputed, but that is something that the whole world is contending with. We have to remember that Trump is not America, and his handpicked team of lackeys who go along with his every mad whim and fancy.

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There is the bureaucracy of that nation who haven’t changed its worldview just because an irrational and seemingly semi-literate demagogue is in charge for a few years. Nor have the right-thinking politicians on both sides of the aisle, and even former members of Trump’s first cabinet. Everyone is waiting to weather the Trumpian storm, and so should India. At the same time, India is doing the right thing by continuing to exercise its long-cherished strategic autonomy by seeking to expand trade relations with China and Russia, apart from similarly engaging with the affluent European Bloc of nations and the United Kingdom.

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India, being the largest nation in the world in terms of population, has a tremendous advantage in that it has such a large market, which can not only help it grow economically even in the event of a fall in its export earnings, but it can also use that as leverage in conducting its global affairs. Not allowing free rein to the Americans in the Indian markets, in fact, lies at the heart of the current American decision to punish India with tariffs.

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For all the current problems we are having with the Americans, there is much that binds the two former British colonies. The Americans supported India during its freedom struggle and provided it with much-needed food aid in the 1960s. Martin Luther King based his civil rights movement on Gandhi’s principles of non-violence.

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It also helped us against the Chinese in 1962, and there have always been warm people to people contacts between the peoples of the  two countries. The English language and their status as the world’s most consequential democracies bond India and America in ways that are not possible with totalitarian states like Russia and China. The best and brightest Indian students have gone on to complete their higher studies in the most prestigious American colleges and found astounding success in America across myriad fields. Indian doctors, engineers, managers, CEOs, and IT professionals rule the roost in the United States of America.

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The two countries bond culturally as well, with the American way of life slowly permeating across India’s cities as towns, as evidenced by the very large number of Mc Donalds, Burger KIngs, Pizza Huts, and other American style  fast food chains present everywhere. People drink Coca-Cola and  use American social media platforms in practically every part of India and draw their cultural cues from the West, and hardly from Russia and China. India, on its part, exercises its cultural influence on America through yoga and spirituality. This is not a relationship that is driven by the politicians, but the peoples of the two countries. We need to remember that when we react to the actions of the men of straw who call themselves leaders of America.

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While protecting India’s interests by not succumbing to their rank bullying tactics, it is important not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. We should, in fact, look at the present impasse with regard to Indo-US relations as an opportunity to try and strengthen our domestic industries and seek out diverse export markets. At the same time, we should not shy away from the important economic reforms needed domestically and unshackle our private sector to grow boldly and ambitiously. We would also see if we can reduce the tariff we charge on our imports to encourage countries across the world to trade with us. That will also incentivise our local industries to become more efficient and give customers better value for money.

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There is much that is being said about the 21st century being an Asian one, and that is not something lost on the Americans who would want to hold on to their position as the numero uno nation of the world for as long as possible. India is well positioned to continue being somebody that the US will benefit from engaging closely with. The Americans will come around. They have to if they have any sense. In the meantime, India should play its cards just right.

India quietly elbowing out China on the world stage

Photo by Vraj Shah: https://www.pexels.com/photo/silhouette-of-hand-1721637/

There was a time in the very recent past when the world looked nervously as the Chinese economy surged and grew to the number 2 spot in world rankings. The veritable manufacturing headquarters of the world, as China’s wealth and profile grew, so did its geo-political ambitions. Its ambitious global infrastructure project Belt and Road dazzled the world and drew support from nations across the continents who lined up to be part of the project that seemed to show the path to a whole new golden age of economic growth.

India was one of the few countries in the world that refused to toe the Chinese line and made it a point to object to the very idea of the grandiose infrastructure project, which it saw as nothing more than a land-grabbing exercise on a global scale combined with trapping struggling nations in a pernicious debt cycle. The incredible growth of the Chinese economy over the past two decades occurred because the Americans had turned an indulgent eye to the former slowly and inexorably becoming a global manufacturing hub and the fulcrum of the global supply chain.

With success came hubris and China under its new dictatorial president Xi Jinping embarked on a revisionist path that involved making outlandish territorial claims vis-à-vis its neighbours and behaving roguishly with any nation that didn’t agree with their point of view. A case in point is the way they threatened the Australians with punitive trade tariffs on their imports after the latter called for an enquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

From its perennial fixation with repossessing Taiwan, and claiming most of the South China Sea as its territorial waters to starting an armed skirmish with India in the high Himalayas to justify its illegal attempts at consistent land grabbing and its trying to browbeat Philippines and Vietnam, China has been flexing its muscles at just about anybody it thinks doesn’t show it the respect due to a great power that China was always meant to be.

Unfortunately for China and its great delusions of grandeur, its great economy is sputtering to a halt. Its population is ageing leading to an inevitable economic decline and the West has joined hands with partners like India to slowly extricate everyone from having to rely on China to keep the global supply chain healthy. Moreover, with the flow of cutting-edge technology and investment from the West to China drying up, they are looking at very bad times ahead indeed. Growth has plummeted and unemployment has risen among a very highly aspirational youth leading to social unrest.

India on its part has quietly gone about building its economy in a big way by investing heavily in infrastructure and forging close economic ties with nations ranging from the US, and the European region to the Middle East and Japan. Strategically too, India has been shoring up its military capability by purchasing cutting-edge aircraft, building infrastructure in the Himalayas, making its own aircraft carrier and forging strategic alliances with a host of nations. The most important one is the four-nation QUAD comprising India, the US, Japan and Australia.

In its immediate neighbourhood, India has helped an economically devastated Sri Lanka by extending credit lines to them that no other nation in the world including China would do. It has largely warm and friction-free relations with all its immediate neighbours, apart from China and Pakistan. India is also enhancing its naval presence in the Indian Ocean knowing fully well that it can choke China of food and fuel supplies at will, as all the important sea lanes to China from the West pass under the Indian peninsula. In a direct blow to the much vaunted and faltering Belt and Road initiative, the new economic corridor from India to Europe, The India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) which was announced at the recently concluded G20 summit will prove to be a catalyst for stimulating close economic ties between Asia, the Arabian Gulf and Europe- a potential game changer, if there was any.

By ensuring that the African Union became a full member of the G-20, India has done more for the continent than China with its tall promises and dangerous policy of making supplicants of nations it purports to help. Moreover, the world is not suspicious of India’s motives, the way it is of China’s. Unlike the single-party ruled autocracy with an opaque way of conducting its affairs, India is a vibrant democracy that follows the rule of law. The growth of India will be good for the world as India is a force for good. China is no longer the growth engine of the world, which is a good thing too, for its growth can become a cause of danger to the world and even its own people.

Like the proverbial race between the hare and the tortoise, India may have been late in picking up speed, but it is getting there and will one day forge ahead. Look at the way the whole world including Russia and even China arrived at a consensus on the G20 New Delhi declaration, something that the whole world thought was impossible, thanks to India’s tireless efforts. India is quietly, but inexorably elbowing out China on the world stage. The latter will likely be busy staving out economic crises, social unrest and food shortages in the years ahead. It may not be that apparent yet, but the next few decades are India’s.

Will India be the definitive G-20 breakout nation?

 

 

Photo by Navneet Shanu: https://www.pexels.com/photo/brown-carriage-wheel-672630/

With the much talked about G-20 summit set to commence in New Delhi on the 9^th of September with the leaders of some 60 countries arriving in the Indian capital, it is a good time to ponder over the question-“Will India be the definitive G-20 breakout nation in the years ahead?”

 The Indian economy is projected to hit a creditable $5 trillion as early as 2027[1] making it the third largest economy in the world, something that the IMF has endorsed. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his part has expressed the hope that India will become a developed country by the year 2047.  Things look headed in the right direction because India is inarguably the fastest-growing large economy in the world at a time when most nations are having a tough time coping with the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine. China’s economy in particular has slowed down spectacularly on account of its rapidly aging population which has also witnessed a decline in the total number of its people-something that does not augur well for its economy. Add to it, its troubled relationship with the West and most of its neighbours and the country seems headed for serious economic trouble, something its despot of a president is exacerbating with his terrible economic policies.

Can India take China’s place as the growth engine of the world? That may seem like a tall order, but it is best placed amongst all the nations in the G-20 group-both the developed nations of the Western world and the major emerging economies of the world to do so.  India has already shown what it is capable of by building world-class information technology and pharmaceutical industries. Its large and well-educated middle class, a great many of whom are English-speaking helped the country get there. If it could similarly grow its manufacturing ability to match that of China's it could possibly hope to take its place as the world's leading exporter. Another huge advantage that India has over China is the fact that its consumer demand is 15% more than China's at 55% of the economy.[2]

 That India is headed in the right direction is borne out by the fact that it stands a good chance of increasing its share of the global manufacturing export pie with the government seeking to increase manufacturing to 25% of the GDP by 2025, from 17.7% currently.[3]  Given India's size and demographics and its strategically fortuitous geographical position with the major sea routes of the world passing below peninsular India allowing it to not only secure its interests but also use that access as leverage against an overbearing China, there is every reason for it to assert its voice on the world stage.

It has great and increasingly strategic relations with Western and Western-style democracies which are the richest and most liberal nations in the world. The Indian diaspora which is amongst the most educated and well-qualified of all expat communities around the world has reached the top positions in industry, commerce trade and politics in practically every major economy of the world from the US and UK in the West to Singapore in the East. The rise of India unlike the rise of a revisionist and increasingly belligerent China will be looked upon by the world as a stabilizing force for good and therefore welcomed. India is certainly in a good spot right now. How well it rises to the occasion and takes its seat at the high table will become clear in the next few years. Here's hoping for the best.

 

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[1] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/road-map-for-5-trillion-economy-focusses-on-growth-and-all-inclusive-welfare-finmin/articleshow/102316785.cms?from=mdr

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/12/india-is-quietly-laying-claim-to-economic-superpower-status

[3] https://press.spglobal.com/2023-08-03-S-P-Global-India-in-a-Defining-Moment-for-its-Ambitions-to-Become-a-Global-Superpower#:~:text=India%20has%20come%20out%20of,will%20rise%20to%20about%20%244%2C500.

Why the world needs India more than China

 

 

Photo by DEBRAJ  ROY: https://www.pexels.com/photo/people-walking-on-the-street-14687500/

India and China are two of the world's most ancient civilizations and have a lot in common in the sense that both nations have been in existence a lot longer than all European and most certainly North American ones. They may not have existed as modern nation-states like in the present times, but there certainly was a global recognition of India and China as two well-defined regions of the world since the times of the Greeks, Romans and Egyptians.

Photo by Markus Winkler: https://www.pexels.com/photo/the-forbidden-city-in-beijing-china-5102098/

Both nations made extraordinary discoveries and inventions that helped changed the shape of the world. India gave the world its numerals, the decimal system and the zero, whole China is credited with inventions like paper, gunpowder and the magnetic compass. Both nations suffered the consequences of colonial rule, though this was more direct in the case of India.

For much of their history, there was largely no conflict between the two nations. India was in many ways the spiritual godfather on account of Indian missionary monks introducing Buddhism to China, which quickly became one of its major religions. Buddhist monks, students and pilgrims had been coming to visit the holy Buddhist destinations as well as the great universities at Nalanda and Taxila down the centuries of the first millennium.

This association came to an end with the rise of Muslim power in India and the subsequent destruction and decay of many of the nation's premier ancient universities and monasteries. China and India hardly ever engaged again until after India became independent again when it came face to face with a communist and revisionist power whose ideology could not have been more different from its own. While India came to terms with its colonial past and made peace with it and adopted the best aspects of what its long encounter with the West taught it in the shape of the Westminster model of democracy, a finely developed judicial system, a well-functioning bureaucracy and widespread use of the English language, communist China seethed with indignation and resentment at its colonial past and determined to right historical wrongs, which put it on a confrontation path with almost all of its neighbours and the world beyond.

Its earlier economic policies were disastrous for its people causing famine, death and destruction on an unprecedented scale. It wasn't till it abandoned its command economy model in late 1978 and adopted Western-style capitalism albeit without the accompanying democratic form of government that it managed stupendous economic success that saw it outperform India for a few decades.

India delayed liberalizing its economy till the early 1990s which saw it fall way behind China in the economic race. However, things have come a full circle with the Chinese economy decelerating at a breakneck speed in the post-pandemic period with their supreme leader Xi Jinping reverting to the ways of the command economy even as the Chinese economy goes into a tailspin on account of its ageing population, all-round falling incomes and demand.

 India on the other hand is one of the fastest growing economies of the world with a much younger population all set to propel it to become a $5 trillion economy in the next few years. Besides, it is a vibrant and functioning democracy with a free and vocal press. It has more speakers of the English language than even the United Kingdom giving it a unique advantage over the inscrutable Chinese. India's foreign policy is rules-based and follows none of the wolf warrior diplomacy nonsense that China is known for. In a world fraught with danger where Russia is unravelling at a break-neck speed under its ageing dictator Putin and China facing an economic meltdown, India is a force for stability in the world. 

The US continues to be the sole superpower in the world and with China fast running out of steam, it is in the former's interest to support India via enhanced economic and defence ties, apart from the already strong cultural ties on account of the large Indian diaspora in that nation. The same is true of Europe, Australia, Japan, South East Asia and even the Middle East. Where does that leave China? Nowhere.