Will India be the definitive G-20 breakout nation?

 

 

Photo by Navneet Shanu: https://www.pexels.com/photo/brown-carriage-wheel-672630/

With the much talked about G-20 summit set to commence in New Delhi on the 9^th of September with the leaders of some 60 countries arriving in the Indian capital, it is a good time to ponder over the question-“Will India be the definitive G-20 breakout nation in the years ahead?”

 The Indian economy is projected to hit a creditable $5 trillion as early as 2027[1] making it the third largest economy in the world, something that the IMF has endorsed. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his part has expressed the hope that India will become a developed country by the year 2047.  Things look headed in the right direction because India is inarguably the fastest-growing large economy in the world at a time when most nations are having a tough time coping with the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine. China’s economy in particular has slowed down spectacularly on account of its rapidly aging population which has also witnessed a decline in the total number of its people-something that does not augur well for its economy. Add to it, its troubled relationship with the West and most of its neighbours and the country seems headed for serious economic trouble, something its despot of a president is exacerbating with his terrible economic policies.

Can India take China’s place as the growth engine of the world? That may seem like a tall order, but it is best placed amongst all the nations in the G-20 group-both the developed nations of the Western world and the major emerging economies of the world to do so.  India has already shown what it is capable of by building world-class information technology and pharmaceutical industries. Its large and well-educated middle class, a great many of whom are English-speaking helped the country get there. If it could similarly grow its manufacturing ability to match that of China's it could possibly hope to take its place as the world's leading exporter. Another huge advantage that India has over China is the fact that its consumer demand is 15% more than China's at 55% of the economy.[2]

 That India is headed in the right direction is borne out by the fact that it stands a good chance of increasing its share of the global manufacturing export pie with the government seeking to increase manufacturing to 25% of the GDP by 2025, from 17.7% currently.[3]  Given India's size and demographics and its strategically fortuitous geographical position with the major sea routes of the world passing below peninsular India allowing it to not only secure its interests but also use that access as leverage against an overbearing China, there is every reason for it to assert its voice on the world stage.

It has great and increasingly strategic relations with Western and Western-style democracies which are the richest and most liberal nations in the world. The Indian diaspora which is amongst the most educated and well-qualified of all expat communities around the world has reached the top positions in industry, commerce trade and politics in practically every major economy of the world from the US and UK in the West to Singapore in the East. The rise of India unlike the rise of a revisionist and increasingly belligerent China will be looked upon by the world as a stabilizing force for good and therefore welcomed. India is certainly in a good spot right now. How well it rises to the occasion and takes its seat at the high table will become clear in the next few years. Here's hoping for the best.

 

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[1] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/road-map-for-5-trillion-economy-focusses-on-growth-and-all-inclusive-welfare-finmin/articleshow/102316785.cms?from=mdr

[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/12/india-is-quietly-laying-claim-to-economic-superpower-status

[3] https://press.spglobal.com/2023-08-03-S-P-Global-India-in-a-Defining-Moment-for-its-Ambitions-to-Become-a-Global-Superpower#:~:text=India%20has%20come%20out%20of,will%20rise%20to%20about%20%244%2C500.