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| Photo by Vraj Shah: https://www.pexels.com/photo/silhouette-of-hand-1721637/ |
There was a time in the very recent past when the world looked nervously as the Chinese economy surged and grew to the number 2 spot in world rankings. The veritable manufacturing headquarters of the world, as China’s wealth and profile grew, so did its geo-political ambitions. Its ambitious global infrastructure project Belt and Road dazzled the world and drew support from nations across the continents who lined up to be part of the project that seemed to show the path to a whole new golden age of economic growth.
India was one of the few countries in the world that refused to toe the Chinese line and made it a point to object to the very idea of the grandiose infrastructure project, which it saw as nothing more than a land-grabbing exercise on a global scale combined with trapping struggling nations in a pernicious debt cycle. The incredible growth of the Chinese economy over the past two decades occurred because the Americans had turned an indulgent eye to the former slowly and inexorably becoming a global manufacturing hub and the fulcrum of the global supply chain.
With success came hubris and China under its new dictatorial president Xi Jinping embarked on a revisionist path that involved making outlandish territorial claims vis-à-vis its neighbours and behaving roguishly with any nation that didn’t agree with their point of view. A case in point is the way they threatened the Australians with punitive trade tariffs on their imports after the latter called for an enquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.
From its perennial fixation with repossessing Taiwan, and claiming most of the South China Sea as its territorial waters to starting an armed skirmish with India in the high Himalayas to justify its illegal attempts at consistent land grabbing and its trying to browbeat Philippines and Vietnam, China has been flexing its muscles at just about anybody it thinks doesn’t show it the respect due to a great power that China was always meant to be.
Unfortunately for China and its great delusions of grandeur, its great economy is sputtering to a halt. Its population is ageing leading to an inevitable economic decline and the West has joined hands with partners like India to slowly extricate everyone from having to rely on China to keep the global supply chain healthy. Moreover, with the flow of cutting-edge technology and investment from the West to China drying up, they are looking at very bad times ahead indeed. Growth has plummeted and unemployment has risen among a very highly aspirational youth leading to social unrest.
India on its part has quietly gone about building its economy in a big way by investing heavily in infrastructure and forging close economic ties with nations ranging from the US, and the European region to the Middle East and Japan. Strategically too, India has been shoring up its military capability by purchasing cutting-edge aircraft, building infrastructure in the Himalayas, making its own aircraft carrier and forging strategic alliances with a host of nations. The most important one is the four-nation QUAD comprising India, the US, Japan and Australia.
In its immediate neighbourhood, India has helped an economically devastated Sri Lanka by extending credit lines to them that no other nation in the world including China would do. It has largely warm and friction-free relations with all its immediate neighbours, apart from China and Pakistan. India is also enhancing its naval presence in the Indian Ocean knowing fully well that it can choke China of food and fuel supplies at will, as all the important sea lanes to China from the West pass under the Indian peninsula. In a direct blow to the much vaunted and faltering Belt and Road initiative, the new economic corridor from India to Europe, The India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) which was announced at the recently concluded G20 summit will prove to be a catalyst for stimulating close economic ties between Asia, the Arabian Gulf and Europe- a potential game changer, if there was any.
By ensuring that the African Union became a full member of the G-20, India has done more for the continent than China with its tall promises and dangerous policy of making supplicants of nations it purports to help. Moreover, the world is not suspicious of India’s motives, the way it is of China’s. Unlike the single-party ruled autocracy with an opaque way of conducting its affairs, India is a vibrant democracy that follows the rule of law. The growth of India will be good for the world as India is a force for good. China is no longer the growth engine of the world, which is a good thing too, for its growth can become a cause of danger to the world and even its own people.
Like the proverbial race between the hare and the tortoise, India may have been late in picking up speed, but it is getting there and will one day forge ahead. Look at the way the whole world including Russia and even China arrived at a consensus on the G20 New Delhi declaration, something that the whole world thought was impossible, thanks to India’s tireless efforts. India is quietly, but inexorably elbowing out China on the world stage. The latter will likely be busy staving out economic crises, social unrest and food shortages in the years ahead. It may not be that apparent yet, but the next few decades are India’s.
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